A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
